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    瘋狂的股市

    時間:2018-11-23 14:53來源: 作者:jzr123 點擊:
      

    兩只小老鼠掉進了牛奶桶,第一只很快就放棄了被淹死了,第二只卻不放棄,它猛烈掙扎直到把牛奶都攪拌成了奶油然后爬了出去。——《貓鼠游戲》


    股市就像一個牛奶桶,所有人都以為自己是第二只老鼠能把那桶牛奶攪成奶油,他們勇往直前、義無反顧,在奶油桶里翻騰打轉勢要成為一只可以獨享奶油的老鼠。人就是這樣,他們樂意聽故事尤其是那些僅憑一己之力便能使風云變化的英雄故事,金庸的武俠、斯坦李的超級英雄,每個人津津樂道不知所疲。當來到股市,人們更加瘋狂了,金錢就像魚翁的魚餌,勾住了每個貪婪張開還甩著欲望口水的嘴巴。他們變得更愿意了解這些故事,并且在他們的心里他們每個人早已都成了故事的主人公,將那股票曲線當成了自己的屠龍刀,將各種的專家建議變成了美國隊長的盾牌,握著那刀能斬落一切敵將將金錢、名利都收到自己的口袋,持著那盾能對抗一切刀斧使自己在戰場中毫發無傷全然脫身。巴菲特就是他們的上帝,《證券分析》便是他們的圣經,他們戰無不勝、無往不利,早就忘記了頭上高懸的達摩克利斯之劍。


    我的父親,一位普通的中國股民,他曾投身怒海隨波逐流直到在這波濤中翻了幾個跟頭才灰溜溜地上岸,只留下一句“股票只是有錢人賺錢的地方,普通人只有看熱鬧的份。”便再沒有回頭看那熱鬧的地方一眼。我當時只認為股票碰不得,但當我上了大學,看到我的教材將股票描繪地如社會發展進步之柱石一般,我開始想要去了解這個股票到底是個什么東西。


    羅伯特希勒曾在2000年出版《非理性繁榮》一書,講述了股市非理性繁榮的現象并表述了原因。自此我得以明白股市是如何讓那么多人前赴后繼又如何使這些人含恨而逃。股市,一種直接的金融市場,投資者將自己的多余的資本投給那些資本不足的資本需求者,使社會創造更多產出從而提高社會經濟水平。這是一種社會發展前進的必然產物,就像魚的腮、鳥的翼是進化的結果沒人能夠阻擋。股市可以讓社會有效地配置和利用資源,這里本應該是亞當和夏娃的伊甸園,但現在卻充斥著各式的投機者,他們利欲熏心不顧社會發展地玩弄著自己的資本游戲,股市在他們眼里就是一張賭桌,有時他們會嫌賭注不夠大,呼喊叫嚷讓別人參與進來,參與進一場每個人都自以為能掌控的賭局,贏的人振臂歡呼高聲叫喊,吸引更多的人參與,輸的人黯然離場無人在乎,即使他們發出勸誡,也沒人理睬。你永遠叫不醒一個裝睡的人,你也不可能阻止一個“英雄”去他的戰場建功立業。


    非理性的假設是切合人類實際的假設,不過它與世上已有的所有經濟原理對立,經濟學家更愿意把人看成是理性的是趨利性的,最負盛名的股票有效市場理論的第一假設便是人是一種理性動物,但在羅伯特的研究中,人的非理性行為是確實存在且無時無刻不對股市造成影響,例如,當人們把自己想象成股市英雄時,當二戰結束后人們開始相信猛增的出生率會在未來刺激社會需求抬高股價時,當人們發覺科技發展前景一片光明時,當人們堅信房子永遠不可能貶值時。這些時刻人們投身股市房市渴望功成名就可迎來的卻不是金錢名利不是陣陣凱歌,他們要面對社會衰退、物資匱乏。在這一切來到之前,股市的“英雄們”請放下手中的堅盾利刃,這里的戰場已經尸橫遍野,前人的血肉未涼新人的鐵蹄就迫不及待地踩在上面,尸骨一摞疊著一摞為下一位英雄搭起了新的戰場,英雄停下來,讓我們在片焦土上重建一處伊甸園,還給社會一個真正的柱石。


    瘋狂的理財單純是讓錢變多,真正的理財是讓錢有用,有用于個人、家庭及社會。

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